Polymarket Traders Bet $33.5M on Iran Naval Blockade Lasting Until 2027

Polymarket users have wagered over $33.5 million on a contract regarding the end of the U.S. naval blockade of Iran. As of September 29, the market indicates a 74.5% probability that an official U.S. government announcement ending the blockade will not occur before March 31, 2027. While ongoing negotiations involve a potential phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the market requires official U.S. government confirmation for resolution, leading traders to favor a longer timeline despite recent geopolitical tensions.