US Midterms and Bitcoin: Assessing the Impact of a Potential Democratic Sweep

Democrats are favored to win both chambers in the November 3 US midterms, with Polymarket traders assigning a 61% probability as of September 28. While the Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act on September 15, market analysts suggest that Federal Reserve monetary policy, rather than legislative outcomes, remains the primary driver for Bitcoin. With 16 of 18 Fed officials signaling further rate hikes this year, Bitcoin's price resilience will be tested against tighter financial conditions.