Polymarket Traders Price October Fed Rate Hike Odds at 37%

Polymarket traders currently estimate a 37% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, with a 61% chance of no change. The contract, which has seen over $17 million in trading volume, tracks the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, with a decision expected at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28. Market pricing remains sensitive to incoming inflation and employment data, often aligning with CME fed funds futures and Kalshi predictions.