GMO: Equity Supply Glut, Not AI Earnings Miss, May Sink US Stocks First

GMO's Ben Inker and John Pease argue in their Q2 2026 letter that equity supply, not weak AI revenue, is the likelier trigger for the AI bubble to burst. About $2 trillion of SpaceX stock exits lockup around June 12, 2027, Anthropic and OpenAI may pursue IPOs, and hyperscalers keep issuing shares net, pushing US equity supply from roughly 1% annual contraction toward near 5% growth. Each 1-point rise in supply has historically cut market value about 4% over the next year, a drag GMO says could cut returns 20% below normal — potentially hitting stocks before AI demand is shown to disappoint.