Polymarket Odds Indicate 64% Chance of October Fed Rate Hike

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting. This shift follows hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Michael Barr, who suggested further tightening may be necessary to reach the 2% inflation target. Stronger-than-expected PMI data and a 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.116%—the highest since July 2007—have contributed to the repricing of expectations, with the prediction market recording over $14 million in trading volume for this event.