Bernstein Forecasts Prediction Markets to Reach $10 Trillion by 2035

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, project that annual volumes in prediction markets could grow from an expected $410 billion in 2026 to $10 trillion by 2035. The growth is driven by the expansion of financial asset contracts, which are expected to rise from 12% to 49% of total volume, surpassing sports betting. While sports betting volume is set to increase in absolute terms, its market share is projected to decline. Crypto-related contracts, including short-term Bitcoin price bets, have become a significant driver for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with crypto now accounting for approximately 20% of their respective volumes.