Bab Al-Mandeb Strait betting odds rise to 18% on data trigger speculation

Polymarket traders are pricing an 18% implied probability that the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait will meet the platform’s definition of 'effectively closed' by December 31, 2026. The contract resolves 'Yes' only if IMF PortWatch records a seven-day moving average of 10 or fewer ship arrivals before the deadline. Recent data shows shipping traffic through the strait has collapsed, with reports indicating as few as four vessels transited in 24 hours, an 88% decline from pre-crisis norms.