Why Bitcoin’s 63% HODL wave isn’t the mega bull signal everyone thinks it is

Bitcoin's share of supply unmoved for at least one year reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up from 62.32% a month prior, according to Maketo data. While this rise is often interpreted as a bullish indicator, analysts note that it largely reflects coins naturally aging into older holding brackets rather than new accumulation. The one-to-two-year supply band grew by 1.05 percentage points, while the six-to-twelve-month band contracted, suggesting a simple transition of existing coins across the one-year threshold. Recent on-chain activity also shows a slight decline in short-term movement.