Has the Macro Pricing of BTC Changed? Analyzing Nine Years of Data

An analysis of 2,438 trading days and 62 FOMC meetings from 2017 to September 15, 2026, suggests that the relationship between BTC and Federal Reserve policy has evolved. While BTC previously showed strong positive correlation with M2 money supply growth, this trend decoupled during the high-interest-rate environment starting in July 2023. Data indicates that BTC prices have not simply ignored the Fed, but rather responded to a different transmission mechanism, as evidenced by the asset's 38% decline during a period of monetary easing between October 2025 and September 2026.