HTX DeepThink: Rate hike is fully priced in, focus shifts to Warsh's guidance

HTX Research analyst Chloe notes that the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate hike, with CME FedWatch data showing a 94.5% probability. The focus of the upcoming FOMC meeting is now on the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and how Warsh communicates future policy. A dovish hike could trigger a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' rally for BTC and ETH, while a hawkish outlook signaling a new cycle of hikes would likely pressure liquidity and asset prices. An unexpected pause in rate hikes would likely cause high volatility, potentially leading to a sharp initial rally followed by a pullback if long-term inflation expectations rise.