BIS working paper: Bitcoin on-chain transfer value estimates vary by up to 6x due to methodology

A Bank for International Settlements (BIS) working paper titled 'Hidden in plain sight?' reveals that estimates of Bitcoin on-chain transfer values can vary by up to six times depending on the methodology used, primarily due to how change outputs are accounted for. The study, which analyzed approximately 100 billion on-chain records from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron, suggests that on-chain metrics should be viewed as noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity. It also noted that USDT on Ethereum is more closely linked to DeFi, while on Tron it is more focused on payments and value storage.