Bernstein: CLARITY Act Passage Probability Exceeds 30%, Shorts Under Pressure

A Bernstein report from September 14, 2026, notes that the CLARITY Act's passage probability has climbed above 30% on Kalshi. The bill aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market, defining SEC and CFTC jurisdictions. Recent Republican drafts include concessions on ethics and new protections for community banks. A procedural vote is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by a Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. Bernstein maintains outperform ratings for Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood.