Prediction Markets Bullish on CLARITY Act Ahead of Senate Vote

Prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a sharp increase in the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year, with some estimates reaching up to 64%. This optimism follows the release of a final version of the bill by Republican senators, which includes new ethics provisions. However, analysts at TD Cowen maintain a more cautious 25% probability of passage, noting that the bill still faces significant hurdles, including the need for 60 votes in the Senate and potential political resistance from Democrats. The upcoming procedural vote is considered a critical test for the legislation.