Bernstein Report: Odds of CLARITY Act Passing Rise Above 30%, Pressuring Shorts

Bernstein reported on September 14, 2026, that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing has risen to over 30% on prediction markets, contrary to previous market expectations of failure. The latest Senate Republican draft includes substantive concessions on ethics clauses and a new circuit breaker for community banks. Analysts suggest that the political pressure from the upcoming midterm elections may encourage some Democrats to support the bill. If the bill fails, the SEC and CFTC are expected to pursue independent rulemaking, which could lead to market volatility. Bernstein maintains outperform ratings on several crypto-related stocks, including Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood.