Kalshi Analysis: Fed Rate Hike Bets Shift Amid $2.94 Billion Trading Volume

Prediction market Kalshi recorded its second-largest trading week with $2.94 billion in volume, an 11-fold increase year-over-year. While election-related contracts remained stagnant, Fed interest rate contracts saw significant activity, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike fluctuating between 45% and 81% over five days. Data indicates that while short-term speculative trading in crypto and exotic contracts drives volume, long-term positions in economic and election markets continue to accumulate.