Morgan Stanley Shifts Hawkish, Predicts Fed and ECB Rate Hikes

Morgan Stanley (摩根士丹利) shifted to a hawkish stance on September 15, forecasting 25-basis-point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in September and December, along with a December hike by the European Central Bank (歐洲央行). The firm cited persistent inflation, energy price effects, and strong AI-driven investment as primary reasons. While market data from CME FedWatch and Polymarket suggests high expectations for a hike, economists like Mark Zandi and analysts at Standard Chartered (渣打銀行) warn that tightening could be a policy error, potentially harming the Fed's credibility.