Fed Rate Hike Probability Hits 87% Ahead of FOMC Meeting

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting has surged to 87% according to CME FedWatch. Market attention is focused on the upcoming dot plot projections and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to determine if the Fed signals a sustained tightening cycle. The shift follows stronger-than-expected August CPI data and non-farm payroll figures. Additionally, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates on September 18, potentially increasing pressure on global risk assets and yen carry trades as major central banks pivot toward tighter monetary policy.