Anthropic releases AI economic scenarios, projecting up to 32.4% US GDP growth by 2030

Anthropic's economic team has developed a model to analyze the impact of AI on US employment, growth, and unemployment. The model categorizes the US economy into tasks that AI can maintain, enhance, automate, or create. Under a mild scenario, 2030 GDP grows by 1.6%. In a substantive scenario, AI handles half of knowledge work, leading to 8.3% GDP growth. In an extreme scenario, where AI autonomously performs most knowledge work, GDP grows by 32.4% to $44.4 trillion, though knowledge worker wages decline by over 10% and unemployment rises significantly.