Long-term U.S. Treasury 10-year rolling return hits -2%, worst in over a century

U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion with a fiscal deficit at approximately 6% of GDP, while 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%. Despite the bond market operating within fundamental expectations, long-term Treasuries have recorded a -2% rolling return over the past decade, marking one of the worst performances in over 100 years. Investors are demanding higher interest rate compensation amid AI investment and rising deficits, though volatility indicators like the MOVE index remain below recent averages.