U.S. Treasury Volatility Hits March Highs While Bitcoin and Equities Remain Stable

The MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose from approximately 80 to 104 on September 25, marking its highest level since March. Despite this, Bitcoin and U.S. stock markets have shown little reaction. The 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) remains near its annual low at 37, while the Cboe VIX for the S&P 500 is near 14. Correlation data shows a decoupling between Treasury volatility and risk assets, suggesting that the current tightening in the bond market has not yet translated into broader financial instability.