CFTC Staff Warns 'Mention' Bets on Prediction Markets Are Susceptible to Manipulation

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory on September 22 stating that prediction market contracts based on the actions or speech of specific individuals are presumptively susceptible to manipulation. The agency noted that such "mention markets" allow individuals to easily influence outcomes or leverage material nonpublic information. While not a ban, the guidance requires exchanges to provide a heightened showing of surveillance and controls to list such contracts.