Bernstein: Prediction markets to reach $10 trillion by 2035, Kalshi holds 60% share

According to a Bernstein report dated September 22, 2026, the prediction market volume is projected to grow from approximately $50 billion in 2025 to $10 trillion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 70%. Sports betting's share is expected to decline from 61% to 38%, while financial assets are forecast to rise to 49%. Kalshi currently commands a 60% global market share, followed by Polymarket at 22%. Bernstein maintains outperform ratings for Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN), noting that the exchange model transforms sports betting into a flow-based business without house positions.