CFTC warns of manipulation risks in 'Mention Markets' for prediction platforms

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued regulatory guidance on September 22 warning that 'Mention Markets'—event contracts based on whether a specific person says a certain word or attends an event—carry high risks of market manipulation. The regulator noted that such contracts are susceptible to insider influence, citing a case where a former White House teleprompter operator profited from non-public information regarding Donald Trump's speeches. While not a total ban, the guidance raises compliance hurdles for designated contract markets (DCMs) to list these products. Prediction market volumes have surged, with Kalshi and Polymarket recording nearly $18 billion in combined weekly trading volume as of late September.