Shenwan Hongyuan Forecasts US Treasury Yields to Fluctuate Between 4.5% and 5% in H2

A research report by Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) suggests that the 10-year US Treasury yield will likely fluctuate between 4.5% and 5% in the second half of the year. The report notes that inflation expectations linked to oil prices are key variables for short-term interest rates, with potential for yields to fall to 4.3% in an optimistic scenario or exceed 5% in a pessimistic one.