UBS: Silicon wafer supply crunch requires 40% price hike to trigger expansion

UBS reported on September 18, 2026, that the global silicon wafer market faces tightening supply through 2028, with 12-inch wafer utilization projected to reach 99%. Analysts suggest that manufacturers remain cautious following the 2023-2025 downturn and will require price increases of 40% to 50% to justify new capacity investments. Without such expansion, severe shortages could emerge by 2029. UBS maintains a 'buy' rating for Shin-Etsu Chemical, GlobalWafers (环球晶圆), and Siltronic, while holding a neutral stance on SUMCO (SUMCO). The report also notes that Chinese wafer manufacturers, such as NSIG (上海硅产业集团), currently have limited impact on the high-end global supply chain.