Arthur Hayes: AI 'Safety First' Strategy Signals Compute Demand Collapse, Bullish for Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes argues in his latest article, 'Safety First,' that the 'safety' narrative from AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI is a cover for slowing AGI development due to economic realities. He contends that the AI industry faces a compute demand collapse, as labs pivot toward efficiency over massive training expenditures. Hayes highlights a systemic risk involving insurance companies and private credit linked to AI data center debt, estimating $1.54 trillion in potentially fraudulent reinsurance assets. He predicts that whether the US government acts as the 'buyer of last resort' for compute or bails out insolvent insurers, the resulting money printing will increase the money supply and ultimately drive up the price of Bitcoin.