Fed interest rate outlook shifts as market prices in 40.1% chance of October hike

Following the Federal Reserve's September meeting, market expectations for future monetary policy have diverged. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of maintaining current interest rates in October stands at 59.5%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point hike is 40.1%. Looking toward the end of the year, the market currently assigns a 54.0% probability to a cumulative 25 basis point increase for 2024.