CLARITY Act Senate Vote Approaches Amid Declining Odds for Enactment

The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of 2026 has dropped to 25% on Kalshi, down from 82% in February. While a separate market indicates a 94% likelihood of a U.S. Senate vote occurring before October 1, analysts and prediction markets distinguish between a procedural motion to proceed and final legislative enactment. The Senate is scheduled to consider a motion to proceed on September 15, which requires 60 votes to advance. Despite Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressing optimism regarding the 60-vote threshold, other industry observers remain cautious, with estimates of the bill's passage ranging from 10% to 25%.