Analyst: Warsh Reignites September Rate Hike Speculation, Data Remains Key

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted that Kevin Warsh's recent remarks were more hawkish than expected. While Warsh declined to pre-commit to a September rate hike, the market has repriced the probability of a 25-basis-point increase from 30% to approximately 50%. Warsh emphasized that fighting inflation remains a priority, though he expressed confidence in core inflation trends. Future policy decisions will heavily depend on upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI reports, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could dampen expectations for a Septem